February 6, 2025
In the evolving landscape of artificial intelligence, several observations continue to surface in my thinking.
These reflections come from someone embedded in the technology ecosystem yet attempting to maintain perspective on the broader implications and realities of AI adoption.
The Echo Chamber Effect
I am in an echo chamber—my consulting/tech/venture bubble is full of early adopters who are integrating these tools well in advance of the general population.
The AI Hype Cycle
We might be in a hype cycle—seeing a lot of companies that are more “AI” than AI.
The incentive in the marketplace seems to be that if you don’t talk about how your product/business is using AI, you are falling behind.
The Adoption Reality
I see AI playing out similar to how WYSIWYG, APIs, and low/no code grew: astonishingly impressive technologies that only a small subset of the general population will use, let alone truly master.
Market Valuation Uncertainties
It is very unclear how the markets will handle AI-first companies—OpenAI is valued at $160 billion at ~14x forward revenue.
It seems plausible that OpenAI could become as big as Amazon, Google, or Apple, but it feels similar to the early internet era when markets didn’t understand how to value internet-based businesses.
Conclusion
The AI revolution is undoubtedly underway, but separating signal from noise remains challenging.
What seems most prudent is maintaining a balance: embracing AI’s transformative potential while acknowledging the historical patterns of technology adoption, market behavior, and the gap between early adopters and mainstream users.
The companies that will ultimately succeed won’t necessarily be those with the most advanced AI, but those who solve real problems for users in ways that are accessible, valuable, and genuinely enhanced by artificial intelligence.